Tidal Effects (Gray Tide In The East Book 2) Read online

  The Foreign Minister’s indignation was, of course, nothing more than a display of amateur dramatics. It was well known, at least among Wilhelm’s chief Cabinet officers, that the disturbances in Poland and the Ukraine, and the revolution in Hungary had been secretly incited and underwritten by order of the Kaiser. The scheme had been cooked up by one Colonel Schleicher (whose name, appropriately enough, meant ‘sneak’ or ‘intriguer’ in German), a former aide of Groener’s when the latter was the Chief of the General Staff, and taken up enthusiastically by the Kaiser. Since the agents used to carry out the scheme were being paid through the Foreign Ministry, as were the funds used to finance operation, Papen not only knew about the plan but was also, in fact, a participant in it.

  Wilhelm smiled. “Yes, I suppose you are correct, but I think we must make allowances in this instance. My unfortunate Imperial cousin must be under a great strain at the moment, and I am quite certain that his words were written in the heat of the moment, as the result of a misunderstanding of my benign intentions. I have no doubt that, given time, Emperor Charles will eventually see that we are only acting to preserve the lives and property of his subjects, during this difficult period when he is unable to do so,” he said blandly.

  “Let us hope so, Your Majesty. It would be most unfortunate to lose our one real ally due to a misunderstanding,” commented the Chancellor, Crown Prince Rupprecht, placing ironic stress on the final word. Wilhelm had sacked the Crown Prince’s predecessor, Georg Michaelis, after the Martinique affair. Michaelis had been opposed to the plan adopted by the Kaiser, one that eventually led to a stinging diplomatic defeat for Germany, but the Kaiser had decided that the whole thing was somehow Michealis’s fault. In any case, Wilhelm felt more comfortable when surrounded by military men and aristocrats, and Rupprecht qualified on both counts. He was the heir to the Bavarian throne, and he held the rank of Generaloberst. He had commanded the Sixth Army during the Great War.

  Wilhelm’s cheerful mood on this day was due to the success of his plans, which had been opposed by both the Crown Prince and Wilhelm Groener, the Minister of War. “Germany is strong, it is true, but not stronger than all the rest of the world together. The day may come when we will have need of a friend, and we will look around to find nothing but enemies.” Groener said nothing, but looked at his colleague and nodded his heavy head to indicate his agreement.

  “You are entitled to your opinions, gentlemen,” the Kaiser answered, “but the final decisions on these matters must be mine, and you are obliged to accept them or else resign, something I think none of us wants. Now, was there anything else from the Foreign Ministry?” he asked, turning back to Papen.

  “Yes, Your Majesty, there was one other item,” responded the Foreign Minister. “We received a Note from Count Moric Esterhazy, the Foreign Minister of the Magyar Republic, requesting formal diplomatic recognition of the Karolyi government and an exchange of ambassadors between the two nations.”

  The Kaiser frowned. “Recognition?” he repeated. “That certainly seems premature, to say the least.”

  “Such course of action might easily be construed as an unfriendly act in Vienna,” said the Chancellor, “and thus give rise to another misunderstanding.”

  “Quite true,” Wilhelm said, ignoring the mildly caustic tone of the Crown Prince’s remark. “On the other hand, if this new Magyar Republic is going to prove to be a stable and permanent feature of a new European alignment, it would be a mistake I think, to foreclose the possibility of making an arrangement with it. After all, there may come a time when we will have need of a friend, don’t you agree, Prince Rupprecht?” he asked, fixing his gaze on the Chancellor. Hearing no reply, Wilhelm continued, “I suggest that we leave our relations with the Karolyi regime on an informal basis for now, without making any commitment, and wait to see how Vienna responds to the situation. If any of my ministers objects to this approach, I should like to hear his reasoning.”

  There was no objection, although it was clear that both the Chancellor and the Minister of War were suspicious of what lay behind this apparently innocuous decision. With that, the Kaiser rose and declared the Cabinet meeting concluded.

  Groener and Prince Rupprecht dismissed their aides, and stayed on after everyone else had left the Cabinet chamber.

  “I am certain that Wilhelm is already planning to recognize the new Hungarian state,” the Minister of War said. “What do you think?”

  “Absolutely,” agreed the Crown Prince. “I have no doubt that he is already considering what he can squeeze out of the Hungarians in exchange. The Kaiser is shrewd, but not very intelligent, I fear. He is incapable of looking beyond the immediate moment and does not consider the long-term costs of these little victories.”

  Groener shook his head. “All he can see is new land added to his empire. He does not choose to think about how his own actions will bring about the very encirclement by enemies that he claims to fear. If Germany acts the bully, and is a constant menace to our neighbors, there can only be one result: we will eventually be surrounded by a ring of hostile powers. It would be no surprise if even the United States was now willing to join in an alliance against us. In the end, there will be another war, and I fear that this time, with the rest of the civilized world against us, we may not be as fortunate as we were in 1914.”

  The Chancellor rose. “If the Kaiser does grant recognition to the Magyar Republic, Wilhelm, I think I shall give him my resignation. I do not see that my continued service is doing Germany any good, and I grow weary of having my counsel mocked and ignored. I long to return to the Army or, failing that, take up the crown of Bavaria. Almost anything would be an improvement on this.”

  “Oh, you can’t do that, my friend!” the Minister of War said earnestly. “That would be a disaster for Germany!”

  “What makes you say so?” Rupprecht asked.

  “If you go, he might make that ass Papen Chancellor, or even worse, someone like my old aide, that snake Schleicher,” Groener said. “I think we might well be at war in eighteen months if you resigned.”

  “A year,” corrected the Crown Prince. His mouth tightened, as if he were tasting something sour. “I suppose you are right. Perhaps if I continue to disagree with him, he will solve the problem for me and hand me the sack. “

  “Let us hope not,” the Minister of War said as they strode from the room together. “Things are bad enough as it is, but they are never so bad that they cannot get worse.”

  Berlin Stadtschloss

  Chapter Eleven

  Vienna, August 28, 1923

  Emperor Charles and his Prime Minister sat at a desk across in the Walnut Room of the Schonbrunn Palace, each silently regarding the other, as if they were both waiting for the other to speak.

  After what seemed to Sixtus like a sufficiently long period of silence, he cleared his throat and said, “It would seem that the military solution is not particularly appealing.” He brushed his fingers over a leather binder with the Imperial coat of arms, a double-headed eagle with a multi-colored shield for a body, embossed on the cover, the written evaluation of the prospects for using the Army to end the Hungarian rebellion.

  They had just been given an oral presentation by the Minister of War on this very subject. He did not present a very encouraging picture. According to the Ministry experts, approximately a quarter of the Army’s formations would be more likely to fight for the new Magyar Republic than against it, if they were ordered to Budapest to suppress the revolt. In point of fact, several Generals had already declared that they intended to take service with the Karolyi government. It was further estimated that, as a result of conflicting loyalties, the combat efficiency of most of the remainder of the Army would be low to nil if they were sent out to kill fellow citizens of the Empire.

  “Let us say that General von Webenau is being overly pessimistic, and it is possible to get the Army to fight the Hungarians,” the Emperor said, “what then? If we win, it will only mean God knows how many more
killings, and afterwards what kind of state would we have, held together at gunpoint and poisoned with hate? I cannot see that the preservation of the Empire can possibly be worth the price in innocent lives that would have to be paid. As a Christian, I refuse to pay such a price.”

  “But Karl, the people of the Kingdom of Hungary are your responsibility,” Sixtus protested. “If you abandon them, it means leaving the minorities in this… Republic…” he was barely able to force out the word, “…utterly at the mercy of those Magyarizing Hungarians, completely without a protector.”

  A troubled look crossed Karl’s face. “I am aware of that, Sixtus. But I do not know what I can do to help them, short of starting a civil war. And given the hatreds that would be unleashed in such a conflict, I think it would make the American Civil War look like…” he paused, searching for an appropriate comparison.

  “Like a tea party on the vicar’s lawn,” Sixtus finished. “No, I agree. A civil war is unthinkable. But then what will we do?”

  “The truth is that we have very little choice under the circumstances,” the Emperor said. “We must accept the inevitable. I shall announce that the Compromise of 1867 has been terminated and is null and void, and let Hungary go its own way.”

  “There must be something else we can try short of that,” his brother-in-law protested. “Could we not at least attempt to negotiate a new Compromise that would leave some connection between us? Hungary has been ruled by your family for almost four hundred years. Surely there is no harm in making an effort to preserve something from the wreck.”

  Karl shook his head. “I have more than five hundred excellent reasons for believing that there is no hope in negotiations at this point,” he said, referring to the number of the dead from the massacre in Budapest. “I think it is best to do what needs to be done in a peaceful fashion and generous spirit. Only this can begin to alleviate some of the bitterness.”

  Sixtus said nothing, but his expression indicated that he still was not wholly convinced by the Emperor’s arguments.

  “It is not as if this was totally unexpected, after all,” Karl continued. “I for one never thought that the creation of 1867 would last forever. There is little doubt in my mind that the great majority of Hungarians have wanted to part ways with Austria at least as long ago as 1848…” when a Hungarian independence movement was bloodily suppressed by a combination of Austrian and Russian troops “…and nothing has happened since then to make the union more popular in Budapest.”

  “True enough,” Sixtus agreed reluctantly.

  “There is a bright side, if you care to look for it,” Karl continued. “The Hungarians have opposed my programs for political reform and economic development at every turn, and now we will be able to proceed without the dead hand of what is, after all, a comparatively backward, rural nation. I suspect that, in the not very long run, the new Magyar Republic will prove to be so dependent on Austria economically that they will be subject to us for all practical purposes and independent in name only.”

  “There is that,” the Prince said. He brightened. “And of course, without you to mitigate their excesses, when they start to get rough with the non-Magyars, their ethnic minorities will scream bloody murder, and they will soon find themselves on the brink of war with Romania and Russia, whereas for us, those particular headaches will be things of the past.”

  “I cannot take any pleasure in the prospect of war, no matter which parties are involved,” Karl said reprovingly. “However, leaving aside your enthusiasm for your prediction, I must agree. I think we have discussed the matter sufficiently, and I hope that if you are still incompletely persuaded, you will still put aside your reservations and help me. Will you prepare a draft speech granting Hungarian independence for my consideration, Sixtus? I will work on my own version, and we can compare notes tomorrow.”

  “Yes, of course I will, Your Majesty,” Sixtus said, rising. “The truth is that the Hungarians do not deserve to be ruled by such a decent human being. They are barbarians.”

  “Whether they deserve me or I them is in any case irrelevant,” the Emperor said. “In a few days, they won’t have King Charles the Fourth to kick around any more.”

  Chartwell House, Westerham, Kent

  Chapter Twelve

  Westerham, England,

  September 1, 1923

  As the Prime Minister absolutely refused to conduct business in London over the weekend, the meeting with Swing was moved to Chartwell, the P.M.’s newly acquired country estate in Kent. Churchill insisted that the reporter and his photographer stay on as his guests from Friday to Sunday.

  “I have a great many things to discuss, Mr. Swing, and I will not be rushed through them. We shall have all of the weekend to cover them,” the Prime Minister said.

  It was early Saturday afternoon before they even began to talk. Swing, Churchill and Sir Edward Grey, the Foreign Secretary, had just finished a long lunch consisting of several courses of solid English food, including a bland, unsauced whiting, a Yorkshire pudding and a large and (to Swing’s mind) overcooked roast beef, and were now settled into leather wing chairs in the drawing room which was lit by 18th century crystal chandeliers and had a fine view of the Kentish countryside. Christina had been taken on a tour of the grounds by the P.M.’s wife, Clementine.

  The Prime Minister had a brandy close at hand on a side table. He took a sip, and regarded the American through a cloud of cigar smoke. “I have read the draft treaty you have brought from us from Vienna,” he said. “If his proposal is to be taken at face value, it would appear that Emperor Charles wishes to make this Grand Alliance…” (this name for the proposed treaty was Churchill’s own coining, and it was a moment before Swing realized what he was talking about) “…open to any nation who cares to join it. May I take this to mean that you have already discussed it with Signore Giolotti , and Monsieurs Theunis…” (the heads of the Italian and Belgian governments) “… and Herriot, and that you further plan to seek allies in the Hague, Copenhagen, Stockholm and St. Petersburg? If he hoped to keep his plans sub rosa, I should think this would be a chancy procedure, at best.” The latter four cities would follow Swing’s stop in England.

  Swing had the strong impression that this question was not intended seriously, but he chose to treat it as if it was. “Well no, sir,” Swing said. “It was the Emperor’s idea that the treaty proposal be made only here, to France and the United States, to begin with. Only after the…” he paused for a moment, and then decided to adopt the Prime Minister’s terminology “…Grand Alliance was a going concern, would other nations be invited.”

  “Prudent,” commented the Foreign Secretary, blowing out a cloud of cigarette smoke. “Aside from the issue of security, I am uncertain to what degree the treaty Powers would be strengthened by the addition of Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and other smaller states, particularly if it entails an automatic commitment to war in the event they are threatened by Germany.”

  “Indeed,” agreed Churchill. “This was almost the first thought that occurred to me as I perused the proposal. It is possible to imagine the French being willing to make such a commitment, if by doing so they were able to gain allies such as Austria and the United States. It is conceivable, at least since the recent crisis in the Western Hemisphere…” by which he meant the Martinique Affair “…to foresee the Commons agreeing to make this country part of such a combination, but I do not see any way that the great Republic on the far side of the Atlantic would be ready to do so, at least not in the immediate future, as you should understand as well as anyone, Mr. Swing. We are presently engaged in talks with the Americans, and there is an excellent prospect for the signing of a naval treaty between us in the near future…” for confirmation he turned to Gray, who nodded, then continued, “…largely thanks to Kaiser Wilhelm, but is your nation, so recently emerged from isolation, prepared to enter a European war of behalf of Denmark or Holland? I rather think not.”

  Swing did not attempt to gainsay Chur
chill’s shrewd observation. Indeed, he thought it would be difficult to even get the Americans to sit down at the conference table to just to discuss joining such an alliance system. “Those are the sorts of matters that can be straightened out at the conference. The details can be worked out later. The important thing is to begin, if it is not too late already,” Swing said.

  “Ah, there I think you have put your finger on the salient point,” Churchill said. “Perhaps our position in the world would not today be so perilous had we stood by France and Russia in their hour of need in 1914. Now Germany is stronger, far stronger I fear, than she was a decade ago, and the other powers of Central and Eastern Europe, weaker. Even with the adherence of the United States to an alliance with ourselves, France, and Austria, the outcome of a war with Germany would be far from certain, particularly in view of Austria’s current difficulties. But still, late is better far than never, and it is something to start, to make a stand, before first Europe, then all the world, is submerged beneath the gray, Teutonic tide. There have been far too many wars in the long, lamentable catalogue of human cruelty, and far too many innocents have been made to pay in blood for decisions in which they had no say. No sane man would wish for war, but there are some things which are worse still, Mr. Swing. There are times when free men must be prepared to fight and, if needed, die, to preserve their honor and their liberty, and this,I fear is one.”

  “I have seen modern warfare firsthand, Mr. Churchill, I have reported on it…” Swing began.

  “And, as one who made his debut in public life as a war correspondent, done so exceedingly well, may I say,” Churchill interposed.

  “Thank you, sir,” Swing acknowledged the compliment, then continued, “…and although I could not phrase it as eloquently as you, I agree with every word you said. Germany must be stopped soon, or it will be too late to stop her at all. This is exactly why I agreed to take on this mission for the Emperor, and why I will do everything in my power to persuade President Lowden to send the Secretary of State or another U.S. representative with plenipotentiary powers to the treaty conference when I return to America.”